Is the Russian Invasion Sputtering Out? | National Review

Is the Russian Invasion Sputtering Out? | National Review

There are indications that the Russians are in real trouble in Ukraine — doesn’t meant that they aren’t causing immense damage and suffering or that they won’t press ahead, but there are more indications that they are stalled.

From the latest report from the Institute for the Study of War:

Russian forces did not make any major advances and Ukrainian forces carried out several local counterattacks on March 17. Russian forces made little territorial progress and continued to deploy reserve elements—including from the 1st Guards Tank Army and 810th Naval Infantry Brigade—in small force packets that are unlikely to prove decisive. Russian forces continue to suffer heavy casualties around Kharkiv, and Russian attempts to bypass the city of Izyum are unlikely to succeed. Russian forces continued assaults on Mariupol on March 17 but did not conduct any other successful advances from Crimea. . . .

Russian forces face mounting difficulties replacing combat casualties and replacing expended munitions. The Ukrainian General Staff stated on March 17 that Russian forces will begin another wave of mobilization for the Donetsk People’s Republic’s (DNR) 1st Army Corps on March 20. Ukrainian intelligence continued to report Russian forces face difficulties manning both combat and support units and increasing desertion rates. The General Staff further reported that Russian forces are increasingly using indiscriminate weapons against residential areas because they used almost their entire supply of “Kalibr” and “Iskander” cruise missiles in the first 20 days of the invasion. It is unclear if the Ukrainian General Staff means Russian forces have used almost all precision munitions earmarked for the operation in Ukraine or almost all missiles in Russia’s total arsenal—though likely the former.

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About the Author

Tony Beasley
Tony Beasley writes for the Local News, US and the World Section of ANH.