President Biden, speaking at the NATO conference today, declared, “the next election, I’d be very fortunate if I had that same man running against me” — referring to a rematch against Donald Trump again in 2024.
Mr. President, that really depends upon which poll you’re looking at these days. In the past month, McLaughlin has Trump beating Biden by 3 percentage points nationwide, the Emerson college poll has the same margin, Echelon Insights has Biden beating Trump by 3 percentage points, and the University of Massachusetts has Biden beating Trump by 2 percentage points. Schoen Cooperman Research has the two men tied, with 44 percent each.
Yes, the polls have been wrong before, and there is no national popular vote, the more pertinent measurement is whether Biden or Trump could win enough states to win 270 or more electoral votes. There’s a lot of road ahead, and a lot can change, but right now, neither Biden nor Trump should simply assume that a rematch would be an assured landslide victory.
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